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Market rebound prediction - October 8, 2021
How is market doing today?
Market indices close in the red today, but that does not tell the whole story.
It is never easy to predict a market rebound. It is possible that market has done its damage and might rise from here, but only time will tell. The signs are good right now at least for a near term rebound. The stocks and industry groups are showing healthy accumulation overall.
This is a critical juncture as market could face resistance and head for a third leg down. Earnings season is starting and usually that involves some selling into the earnings for stocks with less confidence by investors.
Overall, most of the major indices was able to turn the week around and end up in positive territory.
| Index | Oct. 4 - 8 |
| Nasdaq | 0.09% |
| S&P 500 | 0.79% |
| Dow Jones | 1.22% |
| Russell 2000 | -0.38% |
Check out our course How to measure or calculate stock market breadth
What is the current support level?
Nasdaq falls back to its 10 days moving average as it continues to struggle to find a sustainable uptrend.
S&P 500 and Dow Jones also struggle near its 50 days moving average.
Dow Jones an is down for the day as it is not too far away from its 200 days moving average.
Russell 2000 is holding on to its 10, 21, 50 and 200 days moving average as they all converge.
- NASDAQ - below its 50 days moving average line near 14825; current at 14579
- S&P 500 - below its 50 days moving average line near 4440; current at 4391
- DJIA - below its 50 days moving average line near 35000; current at 34746
- RUSSELL 2000 - above its 50 days moving average line near 2220; current at 2233
Psychological levels
- Nasdaq is below 15000.
- S&P 500 is below 4500.
- Dow Jones Industrial Average is below 35000.
- Small cap Russell 2000 is above 2200.
Accumulation/Distribution for this week:
#industry groups 56 vs 34
#stocks 282 vs 166
Which industry groups show strength?
There are some industry groups under accumulation with mostly in the industrial and commodities/energy sectors.
| Sector | Industry | Sub-group | # | Stocks |
| Technology | Technology | Computer Software: Programming, Data Processing (Content) | 3 | CARG, HUYA, IAC |
| Industrial | Basic Industries | Major Chemicals | 2 | HUN, WLK |
| Industrial | Consumer Durables | Containers/Packaging | 2 | ATR, GEF |
| Industrial | Technology | Electrical Products | 3 | JBL, KE, TTMI |
| Industrial | Basic Industries | Environmental Services | 3 | GFL, TTEK, WM |
| Industrial | Transportation | Railroads | 3 | CSX, NSC, UNP |
| Commodities | Basic Industries | Agricultural Chemicals | 3 | MOS, NTR, UAN |
| Commodities | Energy | Coal Mining | 3 | CNX, HCC, METC |
| Commodities | Energy | Oil & Gas Production (Canada) | 2 | CNQ, ERF |
| Commodities | Energy | Oilfield Services/Equipment | 7 | HAL, HLX, OII, OIS, PUMP, RES, SLB |
| Commodities | Energy | Integrated oil Companies | 9 | AM, BP, CVX, MRO, PTR, RDS.A, WMB, XOM, YPF |
| Commodities | Energy | Oil & Gas Production (International) | 6 | APA, COP, HES, MUR, OVV, OXY |
| Commodities | Energy | Integrated oil Companies | 9 | CLMT, CVI, DK, HFC, MPC, PBF, PSX, TRGP, VLO |
| Commodities | Energy | Natural Gas Distribution | 5 | DCP, ENB, EPD, KMI, TGP |
| Commodities | Energy | Oil & Gas Production (U.S.) | 18 | AR, BCEI, CLR, CPE, DVN, EOG, FANG, LPI, MGY, MTDR, PHX, PVAC, PXD, SBOW, SM, VNOM, WLL, WTI |
| Financial | Consumer Services | Other Consumer Services (Specialty) | 7 | ASPS, DFIN, HUT, ICE, LC, NDAQ, TW |
| Financial | Finance | Property-Casualty Insurers (Diversified) | 2 | MFC, PFG |
Which industry groups from recent strength show weakness today?
| Relative strength drops by 1% | ||||
| Industrial | Basic Industries | Major Chemicals: Others | 5 | BCPC, CC, ESI, MEOH, SOI |
Disclaimer: MCBOSS CAPITAL provides financial education and information research. None of this information should be used for investment purpose. Please seek professional advice. Information provided may not always be accurate.
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